So China is holding its “3rd Plenum.” And it is clearly a huge deal. By advance billing, as big as the kick-off to Deng’s shift to capitalism (ahem “Socialism With Chinese Characteristics”).
Best bet is that it introduces a ginormous rural land reform. This probably…
- …creates a vast engine of consumption that probably power the global economy into some sort of major Nirvana for a few years as I think about it (and return to revise this post). No more exporting dollars to China. We’ll be shipping over consumerist crap by the boatload.
- …sets up the ugliest Real Estate bubble ever over the long-term. Which is a pretty high bar given that Real Estate is by nature ugly.
- …marks a shift to consolidating and exploiting rural populations in place (vs. exploiting them as migrant workers out-of-place).
After that, I have nooo idea. Actually I am just guessing on the above too. Apparently in good company. You can’t find a damn thing useful to read about it. OK, the Economist did do a cover story on it, but the story itself is replete with zero detail and much padding. Sort’ve like dates we’ve all been on – encouraging while vertical, but dispiriting when horizontal. But I digress….
The awkward silence is probably a lack of
- genuine insight by anyone outside of the inner circles.
- domestic interest – China is still seen as “Foreign News” vs. “a big f**ng deal for everyone.“
- news media interest in “long-term” stuff like this. No photogenic refugees, blondes-gone-missing, or babies in a well.
- no clear X vs. Y conflict, so no easy-to-package news narrative.
All well and good, but frustrating nonetheless. A huge country seems to be on the verge of major changes and not a tea leaf out there that’s even worth reading. Not sure to blame China or the media. Probably both.
One thing is for sure. This is where the new guard stamps out the old guard and a whole new set of winners and losers emerge. Like the 12-months-later “strategic plan” re-org that inevitably follows a new CEO – wholesale retirements, demotions, and other re-shuffling. Because China is basically a large corporation – arguably suffering from conglomerate bloat. But that is another post for another time.