Trump has peaked. Why? Because he’s not making any new friends; just new enemies. We’re at that moment of weightlessness at the peak. Before the slide really begins… I think it ends in a crushing defeat. Trump is like a “story” stock. They run up big. Whoosh! They fall big. Splat!
Remember that Registered Republicans are only 26% of the electorate. The “crowd” that voted Trump in the Primaries are only a sub-set of that 26%. The other 74% of the country – undecided/uncomfortable/unsettled – aren’t going to break Trump’s way.
Sure, “Republican leaning” is at 42%. But how many will pull the lever for Trump? In particular, watch suburban, college educated Republican women fade away. They might not vote Hillary, but they just won’t vote.
The election is becoming a referendum on Trump (sorry Hillary). More on that later. And the answer isn’t likely to be “Yes.”
The real campaign hasn’t really started. Most Americans are still tuned out. Wait for the ad campaigns after the Olympics. A barrage of ads – “greatest hits of Trump insulting every voting group except white under-educated males.” Trump has furnished an insult or snide remark for nearly every demographic out there.
The “likely voter” problem will skew polling toward Trump, which will help feed a landslide loss. An effective ad barrage will drive new registration AND new turnout among the @60%-70% of the American electorate that Trump has alienated. Republican no-shows will likely spike too. NEITHER will show up in “likely voters” polls and predictions. They will show up at the ballot box. The Democrats’s will be working to make it seem like a close race… They need the turnout.
The real game is the Senate races. If Trump skews turnout enough, the Dems win the Senate. 3 Supreme Court Justices and a string of “uncomfortable” Warren/Sanders Senate hearings later, we’re living in a very different country.
We’re even seeing hints of the Democratic “stretch goal” to take the House. Less likely, but Democratic gains will mostly unseat Republican moderates. So the House, the only “national” face of the Republican party, will have a higher concentration of the wackiest wackos. That is a road to ruin…
FYI, I drafted this on Sunday (before recent polls showed Trump tanking). Really! 🙂