2018: A National Referendum on Impeachment & (Another) “CHANGE!” Election…

The 2018 mid-terms are a few more revelations away from turning into a national referendum on impeachment.  The Democratic party may not want to go there, but Facebook will take us there regardless.  Put simply, 2018 will be another “CHANGE!” election like 2016 and 2008/2012.  The full focus will be on Congress with probably Brexit/Trump/Macron/Corbyn-like impacts/uncertainty/effects.

  • A vote for the Democratic candidate will be understood as a vote to impeach Trump.  Any and every Democratic candidate will HAVE to take a position on impeachment.  It will be on the 2019 calendar if they gain control.
  • Interesting, a no-show vote for the Republicans will also be understood as a vote “for” impeachment.  And a covert path to President Mike Pence.  This opens up the cowards way out for the (I think huge) base of Suburban affluent “business” Republicans who are still(!?!) unwilling to admit their party left them (and rationality) behind years ago.

The real unknown is how much oxygen will it suck out of the room on local or “real policy” issues.  I’m guessing a lot.  But that depends on how spectacular the blunders-to-come are out of Washington.

So far the blunders have been on par with that 2012 fireworks show in San Diego where everything got sent up at once…  Republican disarray has been my biggest surprise/confusion in 2017.  Much more so than Trump.  I knew he’d be a disaster.  But the incoherence in Congress has been stunning.   That likely continues.  We’ll see spasms of activity out of Congress, but not much gets done.

  • Healthcare reform will be Obamacare lite or (more likely) nothing at all.
  • Tax reform is dead.
  • A gimmicky tax cut could be rushed out as a sop to the Republican base.  But getting that passed will cast an even harsher light on Republican policy incoherence.  Alternative facts beget policy that only works in an alternative reality…
  • The sorry, soggy circular firing squad spectacle will further dishearten the Republican base.   Especially those forced to live in (non-alternative) reality.  Suburban women (see “healthcare”) and Obama/Trump “change” voters (see “opiods, hopelessness, no good jobs, etc…”).

The Democratic playbook is simpler.  Obstruct until 2018.  Anyone who breaks ranks can expect huge liberal push-back and a primary challenge.  Sound familiar?

  • If the Republicans hang on to control, it will be with a slimmer, more conservative majority.  The circular firing squad gets more intimate and switches to fully automatic fire.
  • If the Democrats win, we’ll see a 2 year inquisition.  Trump has already given us plenty to feed the scandal machine through to 2020.  An impeachment is certain, but the Dems probably run out the clock with “open investigations” until well into the 2020 Presidential election.  No reason to give a President Pence time to look presidential.  And there’s enough ugliness scuttling around under Trump’s various business/personal/political rocks to keep investigating until well after 2020.

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I’ve been on a long hiatus.  The Trump victory and post-Trump uncertainty left me uncharacteristically (ahem) uncertain.  No strong views lightly or not.  I’ve been waiting to regain some sense of equilibrium.

OK.  I HAVE had one strong view but its just the collective “AIEEEEEEE!” over Trump.  I figured no-one needed more commentary on that.  But the fog is clearing and this particular thought sparked got me back on the horse.

More to follow.  🙂

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