Elizabeth Warren May Win. Even if She Loses.

Watch Elizabeth Warren.  Whether she gets the Democratic nomination or not, she is methodically driving the agenda.  No matter how many votes she pulls, she’s setting up her ideas to win.

Warren is like Sanders in 2016.  Remember that he never expected to get as far as he did.  The real goal was always to shift the terms of debate.  Warren is following that same strategy.  The more specific proposals she puts down, the more she forces others to reply with specifics of their own.  Even if she loses in the primaries, she will have “won” in that longer game.

And if she does win the primaries.  These are some dangerously populist specifics…

  • Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren has identified something else to finance with her proposed wealth tax: wiping out student debt and tuition at public colleges.
  • She says her proposal would benefit 95% of the 45 million Americans carrying student debt and wipe it out for 75% of them.
  • Warren’s plan would also cut off federal money from for-profit colleges, which she says “enrich themselves while targeting lower-income students, service members and students of color and leaving them saddled with debt.”

The danger of these ideas is their simplicity.  Free money for “me” by taking back from “them.”  Like a certain kind of Republican lies to him/her self that cutting “waste, fraud, and abuse” will somehow pay for tax cuts deficit spending.  Warren’s proposals are equally simplistic, unrealistic, and enabling of the same comfortable self-delusion.  Everyone sort’ve knows its a lie.  But hey – I’ll get my money and the devil take the hindmost.  If 45 million debtors/ votes start thinking that way, its powerful stuff.

It is going to be really really really hard for Trump to combat these sort of ideas without either cranking up the coarse culture war (losing more suburban women voters) or responding with MORE specific “simple” policy proposals of his own.  Trump will probably do both.

Trump tries to avoid policy specifics, but he loves the big promises to “do stuff” about populist pain points like infrastructure, drug prices, health care, education, etc…  Warren is calling that bluff.  Making similar promises with more specifics.

It doesn’t matter if her proposals are also unrealistic.  What matters is the shift to specifics.   They sound actionable.  More than anything Trump has offered (so far).

Trump clearly has no principles.  If has to out-populist Warren, he’ll gladly throw Mitch McConnell and establishment Republicans under the bus.  As a serial thrower-of-people-under-buses, he’d probably enjoy it.

The resulting specifics will anchor the debate in the territory of left-wing populism, no matter who gets elected.

For those who see the world in terms of “Makers vs. Takers,” that would qualify as a nightmare scenario come true.  For “the establishment,” (of whom I am a card carrying member), this creates a pretty awkward choice on who to vote for.   For the Republican-leaning folks in the the establishment, the above solves for a double whammy.

A lot of affluent folks just paid a much higher tax bill last week.  A bitter harvest for loyally voting Team Republican.  If Warren’s strategy succeeds, they may have even more reasons to regret for putting tribal loyalty over self-interest.

Voting against Hillary created a vacuum.  Warren is aiming to fill it with her ideas if not herself.  If her ideas catch fire, it really doesn’t matter how she does herself.

 

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One Response to Elizabeth Warren May Win. Even if She Loses.

  1. Dominique Watkins says:

    I think Warren (fauxcahontas) could easily flame out as a candidate. Many of her ideas start the country down the road to Venezuela by way of France. It’s just throwing money from a helicopter while killing the risk taking innovation & entrepreneurship that has allowed our economy to grow (by taking all the money). The Republicans are hypocrites on tax cuts and spending you are right to point out. Trump (a dysfunctional toxic human) SHOULD throw them under the bus. But that does not invalidate the reality of deficits and debt, nor the harm globalism has wrought on many.

    It’s true people will vote for handouts since Roman times. It still happens in Moldova where they give poor folks a bottle of Vodka to go vote. So maybe promising free stuff is just the ticket.

    Some of her good ideas include:

    permanently ban Senators and Congressmen from trading stocks in office and from becoming lobbyists

    everyone who lobbies must register, shining sunlight on their activities,

    permanently ban Senators and Congressmen from trading stocks in office and from becoming lobbyists when they retire

    letting (Corporate) workers elect at least 40% of the company’s board members

    End Gerrymandering

    Ending Citizens United

    Bring Troops home

    BAD IDEAS

    Opposing a 20 week abortion ban? Holy shit, even in left leaning Europe it’s 12 weeks. Abortion until and even “after” birth is pure evil for this reason alone she disqualifies herself. Science is clear about human fetuses which have unique DNA, separate blood types, heart beats, organs, nervous systems, they are human. There are so many holes in pro abortion arguments it’s laughable. You can watch videos of tiny babies in utero trying to fight off abortion instruments. It is unconscionable.

    Universal Childcare? 20 Million kids under the age of 4 at $12,000 per kid average = $240 billion, from where exactly? (It might work as a tax credit for those under a certain income but not as a direct subsidy on the scale she proposes ) Mind you I am pro family. I would extend family leave to 6 months or more, guarantee jobs upon return, do the same for dads, structure our tax system to favor marriage and having children. It’s just a question of scale.

    $500 billion to build affordable housing? Again from where? Inheritance taxes lowering them to $7 million from $22 million. Which is taxing money twice. That money has already paid taxes when it was made as a profit. It also means families selling businesses and farms. This again is a stupid idea. Magical thinking.

    Minorities are arrested more often because they commit more crimes. Statistics on this bear out. That said I’d be for easing laws on small quantities of drugs and lightening sentences.

    Recommended Reading:
    Aliented America – Tim Carney
    Why Liberalism Failed – Patrick Deneen
    Hillbilly Elegy – JD Vance
    Grand New Party – Ross Doubthat

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