Category Archives: Uncategorized

A Global, 20-Year Garage Sale. Ugly for “Safe” Asset Values.

Today’s FT brings a tidy, cogent, Japan-based example of the risks of so-called low risk assets when demographics turn against you. We Are All Japanese Regional Banks.  We Just Don’t Know it Yet. The (paper) Financial Times has a great … Continue reading

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Analysis Paralysis. Baby Steps. What is the What?

I’ve been running myself in circles trying to figure out the whole negative rates/inflation/global outlook thing.  Usually writing it out helps, but not in this case.  But seeing if some baby steps might help break the writers (and thinker’s) block. … Continue reading

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The 737 Max, DSL Networks, and the Creeping Rot in Our Current Model of Shareholder Capitalism

Our current economic model does a lot of things well, but it reliably fails with long-lived assets.  That sounds like a pretty bloodless comment, but the consequences are – literally – murderous in some cases.   In telecom, we are watching … Continue reading

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Calix – If You Sh*t in Your Own Backyard Often Enough…

I figured I’d publish my post-quarter Calix update here.  As someone noted to me, I probably won’t be getting a Christmas card from them.  🙂  But if the emperor is prancing around in new clothes made of nothing more than … Continue reading

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A Chilling Reminder To Take the Madness of Trump (and Trumpism) More Seriously… Plus a Meuller Coda.

Back to the Fed and other matters next week.  I’ve been away from a real keyboard and a bit busy lately.  But had to share this bit. I’ve been reading a phenomenal (both writing and content) book titled “Defying Hitler.”  … Continue reading

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The Scariest Chart In The World Part 1

I am re-posting this as the charts didn’t show in the prior version for some reason.  I’ve pasted them in a different format.  Please view the post in your browser if need be. All that money the Fed has been … Continue reading

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Why the Fed “Has” to Cut Rates.

The Fed “has” to cut its short-term rate.  Why?  Because their current lending rate seems to create an arbitrage incentive for banks to NOT LEND.  As currently structured, the Fed’s rate policy appears to be an active drag on the … Continue reading

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Trump’s Mexico Tariff Gambit May Be Good News.

After my initial dismay at the Mexico tariffs news, a certain optimism began to creep in.  The move is a disaster when seen through the cartoon lens of “Trump is a loose cannon.”   But it shows a way out of … Continue reading

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Damned if We Don’t. A Glimmer of Hope if We Do. Worried The Fed “Don’ts” Instead of “Do’s.”

Lets do what so many self-described free-market thinkers won’t;  believe the market is smarter than a few, very human folks at the Fed.  A now-decisively inverted yield curve is the bond market “telling” the Fed it needs to cut short-term rates. … Continue reading

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Required Reading. Seriously. Make the Time. Forward It.

Its 2007.  Someone sends you a simple, definitive article on mortgage-backed securities.  You shrug and move on to a cat video.  2 years later, struggling with a financial meltdown, you wish you had taken time to read it. In that … Continue reading

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