Category Archives: Uncategorized

Politics on a Left-Right Axis? No Worries. A Reality-Fantasy Axis? This Must Be Stopped.

A break from musing about monetary policy.  🙂  The main axis of political difference today isn’t left vs. right.  It is Reality vs. Fantasy axis.  A vicious cocktail of cynicism and self-delusion driving real-world policies with real-world consequences. Madness is always … Continue reading

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Do We Become Japan? Is Someone Trying to Say “Fire” Very Quietly in a Crowded Theater?

Trying to pull some recent threads together.  Still puzzling things out myself.  The charts below are the crux of the question.  Look at the bottom (purple) line – the Fed Funds rate –  vs the market-driven rates above it. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=mY7o … Continue reading

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“Its not a war, Its a Pageant…” Wag The Dog in Venezuela?

UPDATED:  From the FT and per the below:  “The prices of Venezuela’s government bonds have jumped from about 23 cents on the dollar earlier this month to over 33 cents on Monday, while bonds issued by PDVSA, the state oil … Continue reading

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Pay No Attention to the Man Behind the Curtain!

Have sympathy for the Wizard of Oz. And for the Fed. People really really want to believe in a Wizard. In control. Keeping us safe. Every society carves out this lonely role role that someone must play – Wizard or … Continue reading

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When the Facts Change, Just Pretend They Haven’t…? QT.

One of my New Year’s resolutions is re-starting the blog. Little Bear is at 16 months, still a bundle of fun, and a bit less work. I’ll probably focus more on Economics/Markets, but range around as before. I am more … Continue reading

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GOP To the Merely Affluent – “Go F**k Yourselves.”

The House Republican Tax Plan’s most perplexing (and schadenfreude inducing) element is how badly it would screw a core Republican voter group.  The merely affluent.  That suburban/urban “I really just don’t want to pay taxes.” voter. The calculus is clear.  … Continue reading

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Declining Corporate Profits a Worry!?! Great News (Rising Wages). OK – Good For America if not Plutocrats…

A quick note between feedings (baby Curtis Bear is 3 weeks old and doing great and, actually, giving us little cause to complain). The markets continue to climb the proverbial “wall of worry (markets’ periodic tendency to surmount a host … Continue reading

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You Broke It, You Own It. Selling Out for 30 Pieces of Silver? Venal. For 30 Wooden Nickels? Just Dumb.

Disaffected Rust Belt voters aren’t the only people that gave us Trump.  He also owes his office to people that should (and did) know better.  “Socially liberal, economically conservative” suburban affluent Republicans.  Educated, otherwise thoughtful people who ignored his stench, held … Continue reading

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Bannon Wasn’t Pushed. He Jumped. Rats and Sinking Ships…

The papers are all saying Steve Bannon was fired from the Trump White House.  But he was clearly the author of his own fate.  To borrow a phrase, he “self-deported.”  Yes he was pushed.  But Bannon rolled out the gangplank, … Continue reading

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What if Tillerson Goes Out With a Bang?

Sec State Rex Tillelrson seems likely to leave soon.  He’s a sensible guy.  Used to being taken seriously.  And presumably cares about his reputation.  What if he leaves with a bang? “I can no longer serve in good conscience under … Continue reading

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