Category Archives: Uncategorized

Trump Will Lose Big. He’s Peaked.

Barring some major “Black Swan” event, Trump will lose and lose big.  That’s a Strong View Not-So-Lightly Held (grin).  What convinced me?  Among other things, see this photo I took Tuesday (after both conventions). Note what isn’t in the window – no TRUMP … Continue reading

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Why I Don’t Think Warren Would Take the VP Job…

Lot of speculation that Clinton might pick Elizabeth Warren for VP.  It doesn’t seem likely… Warren’s dream job is head of the Senate Finance Committee.  A platform for her message and brand.  Hearing after hearing with her patented pointed questions.  All … Continue reading

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Whither the House? A Legislative Golden Age? Possibly. Even Greater Wacko-ism? Definitely.

I just read a Bloomberg column by “conservative” writer Ramesh Ponnuru (AEI, National Review) all but awarding Democrats the Presidency AND the Senate?!?  “Republicans accept the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, and they know … Continue reading

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I (Still) Think Stocks Go Higher… A Wall of Money vs a Wall Of Skepticism. The Money Wins…

The last few days of selling notwithstanding, I think the market is more likely to  “melt up.”  Past its prior highs and up to Lord knows where. As that last phrase implies, I don’t think “valuation” per se is the … Continue reading

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Silly Season Starts, But Hillary Still Wins…

We are into silly season for the election.  We “could” be having a substantive national conversation about the Senate races.  But that’s a more-than-two-horse race and requires explanation.  Besides, when was the last time we actually had a “substantive national conversation?”  So … Continue reading

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Why the Market Might Go Up? Even with Vegans Starving in a Butcher Shop.

The operative term here is “MIGHT.”  This is about exploring a scenario, not making a prediction.  The S&P500 has been wandering around between 2000 and 2100 for the last year.  With notable breakdowns in August 2015 (ChinaMacroOil blurk!!!) and January/February 2016 (“The Davos … Continue reading

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Hard Costs Hardly Understood. Financialization’s Costs Pile Up on the Soft Side. Until They Spill Over.

Goldman Sach’s unofficial motto used to be “Long-Term Greedy.”  There’s a lot to commend that as a business philosophy.  It implies some immediate restraint in service of longer-term gains.  But like most artful things, that nuance got lost as “financialization” crept … Continue reading

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Aren’t “Free” Markets Competitive Markets? Might Democrats Seize That Rhetorical High Ground…?

Competition!?! Egads! That’s totally against free market principles!!  [Whiskey spray-sputter from the Monopoly plutocrat in the top hat….] What does a “free market” really mean?  Lots of competition?  Or lots of consolidation? The freedom to compete?  Or the freedom to gouge?   … Continue reading

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Why Trump Goes 3rd Party. And Might Prefer It. Noble Failure vs Crushing Defeat.

If Trump doesn’t get the Republican nomination, I think he will go 3rd party.  Why?  It solves best for his ego (which is his sole decision function). Remember, he will lose either way.  The question is which path solves for a more graceful … Continue reading

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Warren is the Big Gun Yet to Fire. The Senate is the Prize. Liz/Bernie Double Bill for a More Congenial Workplace…?

The Presidential election is entertaining, but not that interesting.  Hillary will win absent force majeure.   The more interesting contest is for the Senate.  Especially as the math works so whoever wins control in this election likely holds the Senate for a long … Continue reading

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