Monthly Archives: February 2016

I’ve been worried about a “boardroom recession.”  The actual numbers show a decent/improving US consumer economy.  If nothing else, billions trillions of consumer stimulus from cheap oil.*  So how to explain the widespread gloom I encountered at a recent institutional investor conference?** … Continue reading →

Bank stocks are way down globally.  An apparent mystery!  Why?  A raft of research and commentary.  Impending recession?  Are oil bust bankruptcies big enough to cause systemic crisis?  The rot of Europe’s “extend and pretend” response to the Euro crisis?  China about … Continue reading →

A conversation today sparked some thoughts around sentiment inflation, negative rates, etc… So I am blatantly recycling them here.  Happy Valentines Day! I just spent the last 3 days at an institutional investors conference and boy are they a bearish … Continue reading →

Lets review the facts. The Iowa caucuses confirm that there are a lot of angry American voters out there – Right and Left. The market tanks 2% the next day. None of my market-focused news/commentary sources draw any connection between “1” and “2” above. … Continue reading →

My much awaited “brilliant” post on the oil price plunge.  Actually a brain flash I wish I’d had 6 months ago. Oil is in a recursive downward spiral until a (very) rational (Saudi) actor decides to stop the cycle. The “stop” signal(s) will … Continue reading →