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Monthly Archives: February 2022
1). Putin’s Losing. The US is Winning. 2). Putin’s Army Will Quit Before He Does. Lessons from Napoleon.
Two lessons from Napoleon: Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake. – Even if we could have, the US/Biden decided very early on we did not want to “stop this war.” The US is reaping tremendous … Continue reading
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Putin is Already Losing in Ukraine
I’ll start by noting I don’t write anything here to be “right.” Nor do I pretend to superior insight much less information. I’m just writing to collect my thoughts in the vein of quite possibly wrong but hopefully thought-provoking. So … Continue reading
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Ukraine – Putin’s Got All He’s Going to Get (Without a War). So We’ll See.
If Putin is rational, he’d played this mess out to the most face-saving “win” he’s going to get. It “feels” like the point where the whole Ukraine drama comes off the boil (returning to a simmer) or we’re going to … Continue reading
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Ukraine – Putin Can’t Afford to Lose Even One Battle. He Also Can’t Hide The Horror of War Behind Brown Skin and Turbans.
More reasons why Putin’s best interests lie with avoiding war. Does he understand where his best interests lie? I have no idea. He wouldn’t be the first leader to do something stupid and ill informed. But we do know it … Continue reading
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Ukraine – Forcing a Climb Down.
If forced to guess, my bet is Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine (see last bit below). But I have no real idea what Putin’s plans are for Ukraine. The US doesn’t either. But the back-and-forth of the past few days confirms … Continue reading
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The Fed is Going to Look Great in About 6 Months… Inflationistas Are Just Playing Into Their Hands.
Has it occurred to any of the inflation doomsayers they might just be getting played by the Fed? The Fed is going to look like a bunch of geniuses as the headline YoY inflation numbers mechanically come down over 2022 … Continue reading
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“Everyone” is Howling About Runaway Inflation. The Market is Predicting Otherwise. A Slowdown.
These charts seemed worth writing up. Key is 10 year bond yield minus the 2 year bond yield. Have a look. That is some crash (especially that last leg down). Getting back to 2019 lows. Explainer. This is a measure … Continue reading
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Ukraine – We’ve Set Putin’s Invasion Date For Him. Well Played?
The Ukraine situation is very odd. The US and other allies have shared a tremendous amount of specific intelligence. Leading up to setting a potential invasion date of Wednesday, February 16th (while the Olympics are still going on). If this … Continue reading
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Inflation Panic Doesn’t Make a Lot of Sense
Back to blogging. Mostly on macro. Trying to keep it shorter and less tidy and therefore hopefully more likely to publish. “The cure for high prices is… high prices.” A lot of people are expecting high inflation to persist. Forgetting … Continue reading
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