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Monthly Archives: February 2023
Has Ukraine Already Won? Kinda Sorta Yes?
Two days after Russia invaded Ukraine, I wrote “Putin is already Losing in Ukraine.” Even back then, it was already pretty obvious. Whatever emerged from the war, it would not be a Russian “victory.” Putin has lost more and more … Continue reading
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Another Path to Fed Rate Cuts – “Not with a Bang But a Whimper.”
As headline inflation numbers come down, the Fed is going to find it harder to justify high short-term interest rates. Especially if most economic sectors are holding up well in the face of that moderating inflation. Double-especially if the most … Continue reading
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The Fed Will Cut Rates? Why? Politics. OK, When? Before The Commercial Real Estate Market Cracks…
Summary: It will get super awkward if the labor market holds up too well while the CRE market starts to go into a too-visible tailspin. The Fed will have to cut rates. The Fed won’t want to look like it … Continue reading
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