Biden may run a more scrappy campaign than people expect. Reflecting on the State of the Union and also this Biden ad (note the portrayals of Trump and make sure you watch beyond “I approved this message”).
Biden is (as reported) trying to goad Trump into over-reacting. To that end, he’s trying to rile up Trump by portraying him as a “loser” (Trump’s kryptonite word) and a buffoon. He is also leaning in to a more populist, “blame big business” policy message.
Many people seem to be expecting Biden to serve up the traditional Democratic menu of waffle and thin gruel. That’s reasonable after the decades of Clinton/Obama/Clinton’s “triangulation” Democratic middle-of-the-road-straddling – “promise something for everyone, offend no-one, and ultimately say nothing much at all…”
Hillary’s waffling gave Trump a reliable punching bag. Biden’s apparent campaign strategy, however, suggests he’ll be punching back…
The problem? Biden’s non-waffling – especially “anti-big-business” – will make a lot of “comfortable” people uncomfortable. The Clinton-era Democratic party soft-pedaled that sort of “real policy” messaging to keep the upper-affluent on board – the “Larry Summers” wing of the party.
It is OK if those people don’t show up on voting day. Elites are a small number of votes clustered in deep-blue zip codes. Biden is just betting they won’t go so far as to write checks against him…
Why is Biden trying to goad Trump?
- The hope is Trump scares off the “Suburban Moms” that are key to Biden’s electoral hopes. Either they vote against Trump or (more important) they just don’t vote. Non-votes in red-leaning districts are probably what wins this election for Biden…
- To that end, he’s also leaning in directly and explicitly on Roe v Wade, IVF, etc…
Every time Trump goes off the rails, you lose another few Suburban moms. He also pulls the whole Republican project off the rails. Most of the Republican Party has now sworn fealty to an erratic personality, not a coherent package of policies. Trump’s policy messaging changes with the wind. If the man goes down, they have no coherent message to fall back on.
But, per State of the Union, Biden also seems more willing to run “against” unpopular Republican policies. Pushing working class voters to ask “Are we really just Turkeys voting for Thanksgiving?”
There’s a lot of material to work with if Biden is willing to rock the boat. “No more tax cuts for the wealthy! End price gouging and shrinkflation. Stop junk fees!” That messaging seemed to land well at State of the Union.
All of the above is probably smart politics for Biden. It blunts the inflation criticism by shifting the focus to “price-gouging” and “shrinkflation.” It also encroaches on Trumps “working class grievance” franchise.
We’ll see if he keeps it up. But the above is also probably Biden’s best shot at a winning strategy. 1). Rattle Trump to peel off or turn off moderates – especially red-leaning Suburban Women. 2). Defuse Trump’s inflation/economic grievance messaging by occupying the same ground – running against the actual Republican party’s actual policy record, not Trump’s rhetoric.
Bill, Obama, and Hillary didn’t go there because sharp-edged policy arguments scared off the big check-writers. That “triangulation” strategy worked. Until it didn’t. Hillary lost against Trump for a reason…
