Back to blogging. Helps me organize my thoughts. Your replies and comments always welcome.
97% of strollers and 87% of car seats are made in China. Not optional purchases. Prices are already up 30% reportedly. What if they go fully out of stock?
TLDR: We are in the early phases of a potentially epic self-sabotage. It likely grinds on for months or into 2026. That could – maybe? – drive a US political re-alignment. Likely more populism, so I’m not getting out the pom poms…
The self-induced trade heart-attack is going to hit store shelves soon – random and cascading shortages + price increases. I have no idea how big or bad the impact will be. I’ve seen no good, objective analysis. That is worrying in itself. My guess is no-one really knows – like COVID. What we do know is… The longer supply chain paralysis lasts…
- …the collateral damage reverberates in self-reinforcing waves.
- …subsequent repair (after an inevitable climb-down) will take exponentially longer.
Pain for months or maybe years will translate to anger. That anger will foster a sense of collective grievance among a broad and otherwise diverse slice of the US population.
Collective grievance can lead to collective identity and action. SPECULATION STARTS HERE: People might coalesce a new collective “us vs them” narrative – potentially re-drawing tribal boundaries and the political chess board. Might not actually happen. Worth thinking about regardless…
Us-Vs-Them
- We know those that will be “them” => People in power. They broke it loudly and proudly. They’ll own it. Although the other “elites” could end up damned alongside them. Collective grievance paints with a broad brush…
- The shape of “us” is harder to guess at. Who unites with whom around a collective dislike of “them?” Catalytic moments aren’t predictable. Nor are the post-catalyst coalitions.
Without know the nature of “us,” we can’t really guess about who (if anyone) might turn that new narrative into a political opportunity and movement. If talented, he/she might end up elected with a “change” mandate and the inclination to follow through.
We can guess he/she will likely be a populist. That “change” administration might get the trains rolling again – like Mussolini did (and unlike Trump). But a more tactically competent, cynical crew might pick up the authoritarian project where Trump’s yahoos leave it.
If we get a more competent, cynical populist, Right or Left won’t matter so much as “can we save our Democracy?” We live in interesting times… Not very happy about it just right now.
