Category Archives: Uncategorized

I wrote most of this before Biden dropped out.  Revised lightly.  Biden’s decision clears the table, shuffles the cards, and deals out new hands.  But it really doesn’t change the race.  It was and still is about Trump and turnout. … Continue reading →

Biden may run a more scrappy campaign than people expect.  Reflecting on the State of the Union and also this Biden ad (note the portrayals of Trump and make sure you watch beyond  “I approved this message”). Biden is (as … Continue reading →

Adam Tooze piece here inspired me to do a little blogging.  See chart below.  All that Chinese industrial lending = goods deflation.  China is (still) trying to export its way to prosperity. This will be a persistent deflationary force until … Continue reading →

None of the below is a prediction.  It is simply a speculation.  I’m not foolish enough to “predict” the EU would do the right and courageous thing.  But they could always surprise us… There hasn’t been much to say about … Continue reading →

In all the commentary around what the Fed will or won’t do, no-one wants to mention that elephant over there in the corner. Does Fed Chair Powell want another 4 years of Donald Trump?  Or is he on Team “we’ll … Continue reading →

So we have strong GDP growth, rising real rates, and falling inflation.  What is the SIMPLEST explanation for that? High real rates = “strong expected demand for financing” = “strong expected economic growth (driving demand for capital, labor, etc…).”  I’m … Continue reading →

The grinding and creaking of structural metal fatigue just keep getting louder behind the Chinese facade.  This 2021 post (by a respected econ blogger) has aged very well. Worth a read.  Beyond “what he said” I’d add… There is an … Continue reading →

Is this why the stock market refuses to go down? Also why the economy is seemingly so indifferent to the Fed’s rate-raising campaign? It is probably at least part of the puzzle. Paper is a very quick read – by … Continue reading →

Thoughts on Ukraine. WTF was going on with Prigozhin and the whole Wagner coup/mutiny/whatever-it-was?  I’ve avoided writing about this because I simply could not figure it out. Nor could anyone else.* We do know this – Prygozhin suffered a “catastrophic … Continue reading →

Working on a Ukraine rant, but noting a few “Fed” source pieces here from people more qualified than I am.  They also keep looking in vain for fact-based evidence to support the dominant Fed/markets/inflation/liquidity narrative. They don’t replace that simple, … Continue reading →