Category Archives: Uncategorized

The last few days of selling notwithstanding, I think the market is more likely to  “melt up.”  Past its prior highs and up to Lord knows where. As that last phrase implies, I don’t think “valuation” per se is the … Continue reading →

We are into silly season for the election.  We “could” be having a substantive national conversation about the Senate races.  But that’s a more-than-two-horse race and requires explanation.  Besides, when was the last time we actually had a “substantive national conversation?”  So … Continue reading →

The operative term here is “MIGHT.”  This is about exploring a scenario, not making a prediction.  The S&P500 has been wandering around between 2000 and 2100 for the last year.  With notable breakdowns in August 2015 (ChinaMacroOil blurk!!!) and January/February 2016 (“The Davos … Continue reading →

Goldman Sach’s unofficial motto used to be “Long-Term Greedy.”  There’s a lot to commend that as a business philosophy.  It implies some immediate restraint in service of longer-term gains.  But like most artful things, that nuance got lost as “financialization” crept … Continue reading →

Competition!?! Egads! That’s totally against free market principles!!  [Whiskey spray-sputter from the Monopoly plutocrat in the top hat….] What does a “free market” really mean?  Lots of competition?  Or lots of consolidation? The freedom to compete?  Or the freedom to gouge?   … Continue reading →

If Trump doesn’t get the Republican nomination, I think he will go 3rd party.  Why?  It solves best for his ego (which is his sole decision function). Remember, he will lose either way.  The question is which path solves for a more graceful … Continue reading →

The Presidential election is entertaining, but not that interesting.  Hillary will win absent force majeure.   The more interesting contest is for the Senate.  Especially as the math works so whoever wins control in this election likely holds the Senate for a long … Continue reading →

The long-promised exploration of monetary velocity!  Starting with a quick shot of “Animal Spirits.”  And no, that does not mean some bearded hipster’s liquor distilled from dead squirrels and other roadkill.  But we desperately need a swig of the stuff… “Animal Spirits” have been THE … Continue reading →

Obama probably isn’t looking back at the last 8 years with much joy.  But he can look forward with a big smile and a happy heart.   He has delivered the change he promised.  And all he had to really “do” was simply exist. … Continue reading →

The world’s central bankers are scaring the crap out of me.  Why?  They are being terribly terribly polite in a situation that calls for a little shouting.  Every indicator on the global cockpit is flashing “fiscal stimulus.”  It is right next to the one flashing “FREE … Continue reading →