Category Archives: Uncategorized

Two Fed Charts to ponder.  Does today’s data rhyme with the… …(cue scary music here) terrible horrible 70’s when inflationary blight stalked the land? …(cue “I want my MTV…”) the 1990’s ?   The 1990’s were a pretty good decade. Today’s … Continue reading →

If the data suggest price increases are driving inflation, the inflation “debate” ought to center on… prices not wages.  Especially if the data also suggest wages are not driving inflation (very much).  The one thing we should NOT do?  Pretend … Continue reading →

In Sunday School Macroeconomics 101, they tell a story about the Fed. When Uncle Fed cuts rates, it stimulates investment and the economy goes boom!  When Uncle Fed raises rates, investment struggles and the economy goes bust.  So if you … Continue reading →

Why are so many people howling for a recession?  To quote Bloomberg columnist John Authers… Bringing inflation to heel is urgent. That could imply that the Fed has no choice but to execute the landing soon — as the alternative … Continue reading →

Who is the “Change” candidate in a Biden vs Trump re-match.?  My gut says neither. But US voters have pretty reliably voted for “change” since the GFC and Iraq war gutted elite credibility.   So do they force a “change” … Continue reading →

I didn’t understand how far the “pro wrestling” rot had spread.  McCarthy delivered what his radical wing wanted.  The wackadoodle’s non-negotiable demand was  a stage on which to go down in glorious, oppositional defeat.  He gave them a stage to … Continue reading →

In the “Rebel Without a Cause” game of chicken, James Dean jumps.  The other guy’s jacket catches in the door and he plunges to his death (video below).  I think too many people are assuming we are James Dean… A … Continue reading →

When you have indicators point every which way like this, the “right” answer is… Don’t put too much weight on any one indicator.  Something is clearly off normal trend.  Guess from the present situation.  Don’t rely on past examples. But … Continue reading →

The current consensus on the Debt Ceiling stand-off seems to be “There will be a lot of noise and drama and then they will pass a compromise and we move on.  Just like has happened in the past.”  I see … Continue reading →

Wrote this today, figured I’d share.  A lot of people have been comfortably riding a “mega recession ahead!!!” macro call for 18 months now. The sell-by date on that bet is coming soon. If that “big recession, big spike in … Continue reading →