Category Archives: Uncategorized

A friend – probably sick of hearing about inflation – actually (gasp) asked for an update on Ukraine.  So here goes. The last few 3 months would seem to support the “stalemate” view of the war.  Except for one minor … Continue reading →

I’m not pushing some bolshevik agenda here.  The mechanics do matter.  If price increases led us into inflation, then price cuts might just lead us out?  A downward spiral of price-cutting would be great for inflation, consumers, and the economy … Continue reading →

The real economy is clearly slowing.  But it may not be slowing fast enough to save Team Monetary Policy.  Says who?  The IMF.  After Hubris comes Nemesis… The IMF’s revised forecast tells us the rate-rising fiesta risks damaging the financial … Continue reading →

We live better now because Agriculture went from ~95% of the workforce in the 1800’s to about 2% today.  How did that happen (mostly)?  Labor got expensive.  The industrial revolution gave people higher-paid, more attractive options to back-breaking stoop labor. … Continue reading →

18 months into one of the fastest, steepest Fed hiking cycles in history, the market myth of an all-powerful Fed is looking pretty… mythical. A year ago, “Team Interest Rate” was predicting economic Armageddon in January 2022 whilst expecting a … Continue reading →

The market is betting the Fed will have to cur rates by September-December 2023. We don’t (yet) know if the market is pricing in a fast drop in other economic sectors.  Many commentators (and the Fed’s own projections) expect a … Continue reading →

For devotees of the (missing and suspected dead) Phillips Curve cargo cult, the Fed can’t stop raising rates until we see major unemployment.  I do not share their faith in the defunct Phillips Curve or an all-powerful Fed.  I agree … Continue reading →

A lot of people expect the Fed to keep raising rates to drive “the economy” into a recession.  They don’t give much thought to the route we’d take to get there;  What sub-sectors of the economy are (or are not) … Continue reading →

Markets now see a a 97.6% chance of a Fed rate cut by September 2023.   Market consensus is “the Fed will have to cut rates because we will have a recession.” But what if we get a rate cut … Continue reading →

This was supposed to go out Tuesday night, but the power went out here.  It still holds pretty well.  Addendum:  The Fed did raise rates 25 bps, but made noises about slowing down etc…. In “potential bar fight” terms, the … Continue reading →