Category Archives: Uncategorized

Looking ahead, we probably face either (mild) inflation or debt deflation.*  Both leading to the same place.  Losses on assets. * [Debt Deflation] = deflation, causing people to default on their consumer loans and mortgages. Bank assets fall because of … Continue reading →

We risk another 2008-style crisis.   Is that really preferable to 3%-4% inflation for a year or two longer than we’d like?  Even that is a false choice – ignoring all the other tools we have to fight inflation (that … Continue reading →

What a weekend to be locked out of your own blog account! A bit of a grab bag of thoughts here – sorry for some repetition…. Silicon Valley Bank has taken us from from “higher [rates] for longer” to “not … Continue reading →

I am not an energy expert by any means.  Nor am I a Ukraine expert.  So why not look at them both?  🙂  At least I can ask some relevant questions even if I can’t fully answer them. I believe … Continue reading →

This excellent Axios piece (pasted in below) gives us our Zen koan for the day. Investors hang on every last word out of the Fed. The real economy doesn’t give a sh*t Which is… “reality?” As a bonus, one of … Continue reading →

Two days after Russia invaded Ukraine, I wrote “Putin is already Losing in Ukraine.”  Even back then, it was already pretty obvious.  Whatever emerged from the war, it would not be a Russian “victory.”  Putin has lost more and more … Continue reading →

As headline inflation numbers come down, the Fed is going to find it harder to justify high short-term interest rates.  Especially if most economic sectors are holding up well in the face of that moderating inflation.  Double-especially if the most … Continue reading →

Summary:  It will get super awkward if the labor market holds up too well while the CRE market starts to go into a too-visible tailspin.  The Fed will have to cut rates.  The Fed won’t want to look like it … Continue reading →

Something has definitely shifted in Ukraine.  The West has clearly decided Ukraine can and should win militarily.  We’ve seen all sorts of taboos lifted in the last few weeks.  Although maybe it is just that Ukraine is now running out … Continue reading →

Why, politically, do we insist our only economic tool must be a bludgeon?  Why ignore a whole array of more precise, more effective alternative instruments?  I’m talking about simple effectiveness here, not my personal politics.  But politics are exactly why … Continue reading →