Category Archives: Uncategorized

This whole inflation episode has two competing narratives.  Only one can win.  It is looking more and more like “Team Transitory/Real Economy” is going to crush “Team Money Printing/Fed-Uber-Alles.”  The PCE inflation, consumption, and GDP numbers all point in that … Continue reading →

A friend wondered if there were any lessons from Japan’s experience of population decline. The “lesson” from Japan is that no-one has a playbook for managing decline.  Global population has been going up for so long.  So everyone has an … Continue reading →

I was reminded of a post I wrote last year by the news that China’s birth rate dropped by 45%.  As I wrote then:  “A study in the Lancet forecasts total world population will decline A LOT over the next … Continue reading →

So we all know big chunks of the US Republican Party want to stop giving a dime to Ukraine.  But we really don’t know why? It is clearly in the US national interest to weaken a dangerous, unpredictable rival (Russia) … Continue reading →

People keep bringing up the “what if Putin uses a tactical nuke?” as if that would change the situation in Ukraine.  It wouldn’t shift the military balance.  It would drastically shift the political entirely against Putin’s own interests.  Threatening to … Continue reading →

We likely get a decisive outcome in Ukraine in the first half of 2022.  This is probably the biggest economic/political “surprise that shouldn’t be one” in store for 2023.  A lot of people seem to be assuming a “continuing stalemate.”  … Continue reading →

The first rule of Fight Club is: you do not talk about Fight Club. Reading the financial press and the freaking New York Times, you would think the only variable in the inflation equation is labor.  “We must see unemployment … Continue reading →

A friend asked me about recent US noises about Ukraine and Russia coming to a negotiated solution.  I figured I’d write it out here.  So what does this tell us? We are NOT going to see an “appeasement” peace.  A … Continue reading →

We aren’t going through an “inflation” so much as a collective impoverishment. Prices are going up.  The October CPI was 8.11%. Wages are not keeping pace with prices.  Wages in September grew 6.3%, slowing down after a peak of 6.7% … Continue reading →

Putin has just doubled down on his “madman” negotiating strategy.  The problem – for Putin especially – is that strategy gives him low odds for a face-saving negotiated outcome.  In bar fight terms, the madman eventually ends up getting kicked … Continue reading →