Category Archives: Uncategorized

I keep running into a lazy consensus around Ukraine – a long, grinding war prosecuted by implacable, iron-fisted Putin pressing crushing energy sanctions until…? The end game is usually hand-waving about “negotiations” that largely assumes Ukrainian capitulation.  If those ill-examined … Continue reading →

Ukraine will end up with a “frozen conflict” one way or the other.  The only question is how frozen for how long?   Framed that way, the Ukraine’s diplomatic/political end game is obvious.  A conflict frozen long enough to outlast … Continue reading →

Unfilled jobs – the “vacancy rate” – has gotten a lot of attention in the inflation debate. But that debate ignores an obvious discontinuity in the underlying data series. The data have definitely changed drastically around COVID. Some of that … Continue reading →

Why am I so focused on Ukraine?  Partly because it is fascinating.  But more because it is so important to a lot of really important trends. If the cut-off Russian forces don’t hold around Kherson, the shock waves of that … Continue reading →

A friend asked me to update my Ukraine thoughts yesterday.  It turned out I had a lot to think through, so here goes with my apologies.  A lot of people believe that time is on Putin’s side.  That argument is … Continue reading →

A lot of commentary assumes Labor costs is the only variable in the “inflation” equation. We “must” have unemployment to control labor costs!!!!  This is an article of faith for your typical Wall Street Journal reader. But price is set … Continue reading →

The Fed isn’t know for telling simple stories in plain English, but Fed Governors Mary Daly and Esther George are doing just that.  Their narratives contradict the dominant narrative of the business media/pundit complex.  Maybe they are trying to tell … Continue reading →

Take a moment to read the short, surprisingly clear speech by Fed Governor Esther George July 12th.  It contains a warning to her fellow Fed Governors.  She thinks the current Fed consensus risks a major policy error by overly hasty … Continue reading →

“If only we had something more precise!“ Says surgeon holding a rusty kitchen knife over a tray full of scalpels…   How “should” we slow demand in an overheating economy?  Congress should be (temporarily) raising taxes.  The Fed’s rate policies … Continue reading →

The consensus forecast on the Ukraine war seems be for grinding, low-level conflict.  That seems unlikely.  It is probably mostly or totally over by Winter. That is a better outlook than forecasters have assumed.  It might be the outlook markets … Continue reading →