Category Archives: Uncategorized

Why will the Ukraine war end in a Russian defeat?  Because Russia has already lost.  Winning a war means choosing when to end the fighting and on what terms.  Putin cannot end the conflict on his terms.  He lost that … Continue reading →

We are currently living with a Schrödinger’s cat economy.  It exists in a state of quantum uncertainty.  It won’t last forever, but right now we can’t quite see if we are alive or dead. In quantum mechanics, Schrödinger’s cat is … Continue reading →

Putin is betting on Western resolve collapsing before his military collapses.  I don’t think he is going to win that bet. We’ve been through a weird period where Russia and the media re-narrated capturing a 2nd tier regional city (Severdonetsk) … Continue reading →

The US (and Ukrainian) strategy now seems to be “bleed the Russians white.”  Not in terms of manpower (impossible) but equipment (already well on the way to being done). There hasn’t been much change on the ground lately in Ukraine.  … Continue reading →

A study in the Lancet forecasts total world population will decline A LOT over the next 70 years.  China’s population, for example. could drop by half.  700 million fewer people than their peak population year in 2024.  As the study … Continue reading →

Putin’s Army has one big push left.  Maybe. If that fails, his forces are useless as an effective attacking force.  They are already too small and degraded to effectively occupy much territory.  Leaving Putin where?  In a bad place.  Which … Continue reading →

The below is not a prediction.  Nor is it a recommendation.  My only real tool for stocks and markets is to ask Is it Getting Better or Getting Worse?  IF it is Getting Better, you buy.  If it is Getting … Continue reading →

I’m seeing a lot of grand predictions about a new Cold War between the US and China.  There is definitely one coming eventually.  But now?  Maybe China is that dumb.  But probably not.   If they aren’t dumb, the want … Continue reading →

If China is rational, they will start pushing Russia to end the war in Ukraine sooner vs later.  This is our single best hope for ending the war quickly.  OK, hope is not a strategy.  But “hope” is not why … Continue reading →

It occurred to me (after a conversation with a friend today) that looking for signs of Russian military collapse might come across as wishful thinking.  Perhaps I’m letting sentimental attachment to the Ukrainian cause bias me?   Except that isn’t how … Continue reading →