Category Archives: Uncategorized

Widespread hope for a negotiated peace in Ukraine looks misplaced.  Most evidence suggests Putin will fight on until the army or economy (or both) collapse.  We can hope collapse comes soon.  The risk is it doesn’t. The US has likely … Continue reading →

At this point, we can tentatively conclude that China is not going to offer that military support Russia asked for last week.  This is a huge win.  Russia is evidently running low on supplies both fancy (missiles) and mundane (rations).  … Continue reading →

Why is Putin firing missiles at Western Ukraine? He is so confident in victory he can afford to use up his (diminishing) stocks of super expensive, hard to replace long-range missiles on splashy, high profile, but militarily ineffective pinprick attacks. … Continue reading →

Update – Apparently the COSC piece has been censored off social media (Weibo) in China.  That means it is not officially “approved.”  It does not necessarily mean it is “officially disagreed with.”  The Chinese don’t like to wash dirty laundry … Continue reading →

What Putin “wants” doesn’t matter.  What can he actually “do?” As of now, Putin has already lost Russia’s “World Power” status.  He has proven Russia is a paper tiger.  His smaller neighbors will still fear Russia.  No-one else will give … Continue reading →

If Russia escalates, EU politicians can escalate back by banning oil/gas imports (see below).  There is economic space for sanctions escalation if the political will is there.  The impact on Russia would be immediate and likely catastrophic. Hard logic says … Continue reading →

Sometime soon, Putin is going to take an awkward call from his “eternal friend” Xi. China is the world’s largest importer of oil and food.  Xi wants a good year for his coronation.  Russia is spoiling his party.  Especially because … Continue reading →

Most Russia analysis I’ve seen is myopically top down.  What will Putin do?  What will Putin’s cronies do?  When will they depose Putin?  Who cares?  They aren’t in charge near term or long term.  The more useful questions to ask … Continue reading →

Is the Russian Army on the verge of collapse?  The question sounds silly.  But step through this scenario below. That 40 mile Russian column has been “stalled” for 3 days now.  They can’t stand still more than a few days … Continue reading →

Two lessons from Napoleon: Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake. – Even if we could have, the US/Biden decided very early on we did not want to “stop this war.”  The US is reaping tremendous … Continue reading →