Category Archives: Uncategorized

I’ll start by noting I don’t write anything here to be “right.”  Nor do I pretend to superior insight much less information.  I’m just writing to collect my thoughts in the vein of quite possibly wrong but hopefully thought-provoking. So … Continue reading →

If Putin is rational, he’d played this mess out to the most face-saving “win” he’s going to get. It “feels” like the point where the whole Ukraine drama comes off the boil (returning to a simmer) or we’re going to … Continue reading →

More reasons why Putin’s best interests lie with avoiding war.  Does he understand where his best interests lie?  I have no idea.  He wouldn’t be the first leader to do something stupid and ill informed.  But we do know it … Continue reading →

If forced to guess, my bet is Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine (see last bit below).  But I have no real idea what Putin’s plans are for Ukraine.  The US doesn’t either.  But the back-and-forth of the past few days confirms … Continue reading →

Has it occurred to any of the inflation doomsayers they might just be getting played by the Fed?  The Fed is going to look like a bunch of geniuses as the headline YoY inflation numbers mechanically come down over 2022 … Continue reading →

These charts seemed worth writing up.  Key is 10 year bond yield minus the 2 year bond yield.  Have a look.  That is some crash (especially that last leg down). Getting back to 2019 lows. Explainer.  This is a measure … Continue reading →

The Ukraine situation is very odd.  The US and other allies have shared a tremendous amount of specific intelligence.  Leading up to setting a potential invasion date of Wednesday, February 16th (while the Olympics are still going on). If this … Continue reading →

Back to blogging. Mostly on macro. Trying to keep it shorter and less tidy and therefore hopefully more likely to publish. “The cure for high prices is… high prices.” A lot of people are expecting high inflation to persist. Forgetting … Continue reading →

I’ve re-written and delayed this piece for a while. Why? Partly I got busy. Mostly because “lessons learned“ exercises depend on being right about where you went wrong. I’m not trying to make excuses. I’m trying to avoid making the … Continue reading →

I’m as hopeful on the Macro outlook as I’ve been in a long time.  Nursing hope we might actually be able to grow/inflate our way out of the current macro mess we are in.  That implies an overheating economy for … Continue reading →